An artificial intelligence (AI) system that correctly predicted the last three U.S. presidential elections puts Republican nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in the race to the White House.
MogIA was developed by Sanjiv Rai, the founder of Indian start-up Genic.ai. It takes in 20 million data points from public platforms including Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the U.S. and then analyzes the information to create predictions.
The AI system was created in 2004, so it has been getting smarter all the time. It had already correctly predicted the results of the Democrat and Republican Primaries.
Um…yeah. It was wrong. Hillary has already won.
If there is a betting market I’d put in money for a Trump win. Would love to see the long faces on TV on election night. Hubby will have champaign ready.
I believe Hillary was foolish in believing this. A lot can happen in the last couple of weeks and she has no more debates to prepare for.
She may be counting on CO, NV, PA, VA, and WI where she has more than 90% chance but there are indications that these may crumble for her.
Good point. Those who prefer her but have no enthusiasm might just stay home. On the other hand, trump supporters will NOT stay home.
I think the bigger issue may be the millions of votes that have already been cast. No need for October surprises anymore – they’ll have to be in July at this point.
Yeah, late events can still certainly affect the outcome, but early voting makes the timing of news releases difficult.
Of course I don’t get anyone who is undecided in September of an election year, but that’s another issue.
Are you referring to early voting? If so Hillary is up by 8% so far and has most of the swing states.
Not quite correct. No one has reported results of the early voting yet. Some states (not all) have reported % of dems v reps who have voted. But not who they voted for.
No. I think the Presidential is a landslide in Clinton’s favor this year. She might exceed the largest Electoral College margins in contemporary times.
The only question is if the Senate will also turn
Im not sure how much stock to put in this. In addition to what gilliam said i have seen websites encouraging Trump supporters to not vote early with the theory being it gives less time for ballot shenanigans. Weather or not this has affected early voting turnout for Trump, i have no idea.
There are online betting markets you could use right now (potentially not legal, but nothing you’d get prosecuted for). Alternatively I’m sure there are many people in your local area who would gladly take that wager. If you’re confident in a Trump victory there is nothing stopping you from putting your money down today.
I think Trump has a very good chance of winning. I certainly don’t think Hillary has the huge lead the media has proclaimed. There is almost no enthusiasm for her. The party faithful will all vote for their candidate. Hillary will get most of the libertine, Black, and Hispanic votes as well as all the socialist vote. But she was going to get that any way. The GOP is losing some of their own rich elite (for instance Powell and Bushes) votes to Hillary, but this isn’t a big deal. There aren’t many of them. He has plenty of support from the average Republican. If Trump has appealed to the independent middle class voters, and I think he has, then he has a good shot of winning. That is where the battle is.
I would think both Hillary and Trump are not more popular than Obama, but both more infamous and disliked on both sides by both sides.
I’d be happy if the campaigning didn’t even start until September.
(OK, so maybe a little sooner, but I’ve been sick of the election since before it properly started. I don’t know how you’d do it, but I’d rather it be a much shorter process. Less time for everyone to lose their collective marbles.)
However, you should be aware that it appears Trump has stopped putting in his own money
As a buddy told me the other day. “320 million people in his country and THESE are our choices!?”
Cutting his losses?
Stock market and the Mexican peso are also good indicators. The consensus thinking is that Trump would be bad for the stock market and Mexican peso would rise in value, two things that you don’t want necessarily.
Just as I started writing, I hear news about the FBI reopening its investigation into Hillary’s emails and the markets reacted.
I suggest re-examining one’s portfolio, especially if he’s invested in 401ks and the like.
The six largest stock market crashes came under Republican administrations.
I predicted from the beginning a very close race. I just hope there is no popular and electoral vote split as happened in the Bush-Gore race.