UK would vote to stay in EU by 12 percent point margin

A snap poll conducted in the wake of the crushing defeat of Theresa May’s Brexit plan found a 12-point lead for remaining in the EU - the largest margin since the 2016 referendum, the Press Association reports. The YouGov survey of more than 1,000 voters found 56% would now vote to stay in the EU, against 44% who want to leave. Exactly the same proportion of voters said they wanted a second EU referendum - three points higher than recorded in a similar poll before Christmas. Backing for a so-called People’s Vote among Labour supporters stood at 78%.

In a statement on the poll, the Labour MP Chuka Umunna said:

This snap poll shows more than ever why the Government needs to change course and hand this decision on Brexit back to the people.

There is now a clear and expanding majority for staying in the EU and an even bigger one when voters have the chance to look at the real options for leaving.

“The Remain lead, 12 percent, is the highest yet,” Peter Kellner, former president of YouGov, was quoted as saying by the People’s Vote.

In the June 23, 2016 referendum, 17.4 million voters, or 51.9 percent, backed leaving the EU while 16.1 million, or 48.1 percent, backed staying.

Backing for another referendum among Labour Party supporters was at 78 percent, the poll showed.

Peter Kellner, the former president of YouGov, says: "On our tracking question – would people vote Remain or Leave? – the Remain lead, 12%, is the highest yet.

"The proportion saying Remain is up from 48% in 2016 to 56% today; Leave support is down from 52 to 44%. This eight per cent swing is significant.

"It is higher than in any post-1945 election, except for 1997.

Significant information from the poll:

The Remain lead was extended further when respondents were asked to compare it to May’s Withdrawal Agreement or the option of leaving the EU without a deal.

Against the prime minister’s deal, Remain led by 65% to 35%, while against no-deal was 59%-41% in favour of staying in the EU.

So, while support for some kind of Leave now appears (from a number of polls) to sit around the mid-40%s (and would likely involve either “Canada +” or “Norway +”), this drops to nearly 40% if the only Brexit choice is “no deal” and an incredible 35% if the model of Brexit is something akin to May’s deal.

Umunna said that the poll had exposed the compromises of “Norway-plus” or customs union membership as “niche positions supported by less than one in 10 voters”.

Of course, May and Corbyn will do everything in their power to deny the public a second chance to consider the issue now that the facts are at hand.

It’s like being held at gunpoint in the passenger seat of a locked car about to scoot off the edge, while being told by the driver, “You decided to become a passenger 2 and a half hours ago, even though I lied about where we were going. You can’t change your mind now, even though I’m going to drive you to your death whether you like it or not”.

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