US economy growing at quickest pace for 11 years


#1

Obama gets a lot of flack on CAF but as an outsider, this Brit has to commend him for this showing…surely his administration can’t be that bad if the US economy is doing so well? The rest of the world seems to be in crisis, with even the Chinese dragon seeming to slow down, while you guys are speeding ahead like a bullet train. This doesn’t look like the “European Socialism” that Republicans seem to accuse Obama of trying to create, anything but! Anyone care to explain this enigma to me?

I can assure you that Hollande’s genuinely “socialist” France would kill for even a smidgeon of this economic growth.

bbc.co.uk/news/business-30585541

BBC - US economy growing at quickest pace for 11 years

**The US economy grew at an annual rate of 5% in the third quarter, its fastest pace for 11 years, official figures suggest.

The US Commerce Department said GDP rose faster than the previous estimate of 3.9% for the July-to-September period, boosted by stronger consumer and business spending.

This was the fastest rate of growth since the third quarter of 2003.**

The strong figure builds on the second-quarter growth rate of 4.6%.

Much of the third quarter growth came from consumer spending, which accounts for around two-thirds of US economic activity. Consumer spending grew at an annual pace of 3.2%, the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2013.

Growth in business investment was raised to a rate of 8.9% from an earlier estimate of 7.1%. There was a stronger pace of spending than previously thought on equipment, intellectual property products and non-residential structures.

After two strong quarters for the US economy, economists predict that growth will slow to an annual rate of around 2.5% in the current October-December quarter.

But they predict growth of about 3% in 2015, which would be the fastest pace since 2005.

Jobs and spending
The US economy has struggled to regain its pre-2007 vigour following the global economic downturn, which was precipitated by the US subprime mortgage crisis.

After the recession in the US ended in 2009, growth struggled to return to its previous levels. Growth has averaged about 2.2% annually, compared with 3.3% growth in 2005.

However, analysts think US growth is set to accelerate as businesses become more confident about taking on employees.

The US unemployment rate was 5.8% in November. With more people working, solid gains are expected in consumer spending.

It is widely anticipated that the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, will begin raising interest rates in 2015.


#2

msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/us-economic-growth-soars-reaches-11-year-high

**U.S. economic growth soars, reaches 11-year high

Twice in recent days, President Obama has pointed to recent economic trends and heralded an “American Resurgence.” Indeed, as I type, the lead headline at the White House’s homepage reads, “America’s Resurgence is Real.”

It’s getting easier to believe this argument all the time. Take this morning, for example.
The U.S. economy grew at a 5.0% annual pace in the third quarter, matching the best performance since the third quarter of 2003. The increase in real gross domestic product was revised up from 3.9%, mainly because of consumer spending and business investment, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.**

Economists polled by MarketWatch had predicted GDP would be revised up to a seasonally adjusted 4.4%. Consumer spending, the main source of economic activity, was revised up to 3.2% from 2.2%.

Remember, GDP growth at 3.9% looked pretty good when the preliminary tally was released a month ago. But 5% growth is amazing – and the strongest growth Americans have seen in 11 years.


#3

First, to make clear, I am not against immigration. But your source MSNBC is notorious for being an apologist and cheerleader for Obama.

Perhaps you didn’t realize that the jobs that have been gained since 2007 have been almost all from immigrants, (legal and illegal) and citizens of the U.S. have acutally experience a net job loss. nationalreview.com/corner/395057/report-all-net-jobs-growth-2007-has-gone-immigrants-ryan-lovelace

The real unemployment rate is 12.6% as explained in this article. forbes.com/sites/louisefron/2014/08/20/tackling-the-real-unemployment-rate-12-6/

Here is another source on immigrants and the job market. cis.org/immigrant-gains-native-losses-in-the-job-market-2000-to-2013


#4

The US economic system is one of the most complex engines in the world yet one of it’s greatest features is being resilient.

But one big immediate factor is sustained low prices in oil work as an economic stimulus and helps maintain a strong U.S. dollar.

And please lets not use the Rachel Maddow Show as authoritative of anything outside of destroying marriage.


#5

Being no economist, I don’t know the answer.

But being a very amateur student of history, I know that this same thing happened during the Great Depression too. There were downs, but there were ups as well, very significant ones.

My grandfather, who lived through it, was fond of saying “…yes there were anywhere from 15% to 25% unemployed, but that meant anywhere from 75% to 85% were employed, and some of them were better off than they were before…”

Another anecdotal story from his life. He had, when the Depression began, the standard “Old MacDonald’s farm” so prevalent at the time, on which people raised commodities like grain, poultry, hogs. When a significant portion of the population couldn’t afford them, he lost his farm. Farmers were burning grain, pouring out milk, killing pigs, all in a fruitless effort to get prices up.

Knowing as he did that strawberries were, at the time, a “luxury product”, he rented a small acreage and raised them. Sold all he could produce. Bought land, raised strawberries, and sold all he could produce. On and on, and eventually had the biggest strawberry farm in the country.

Why? Well, because 75-85% of the population was employed, because some people were quite well off and those people would buy all of a luxury product people like him could produce and get shipped quickly to the consumers. He stopped the picking at 3:00 p.m, and the berries were in St. Louis and Chicago the next morning.

Now, knowing further that the labor utilization rate in the U.S. is the lowest it has been in almost 50 years; that middle class incomes have been flat since 2007 and that, were it not for food stamps, the soup lines would be blocks long, can we really get too optimistic about the present economy? And when interest rates are so low they’re virtually invisible, are current consumption levels realistic?

To really know what the overall economy is doing, I think it would take more than a snapshot of what the better off folks are doing during a short stretch of time.

Oh, and I read maybe two years ago that the government has redefined what constitutes GDP. As I understand it, they began counting “products in process” in the same way they count products actually produced. That, i understand, bumped the GDP rate up all by itself.


#6

A lot of that growth is in oil and in that, Texas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, the President does not have a lot to do with that if in fact, has not worked in the opposite direction.

So, because so much growth is energy-connected, there is reason to reflect on such statistics.

Then, there are other factors.

The number of people filing first-time applications for unemployment benefits in New York state rose 14 percent to 24,119 in the week ending Nov. 29, from 21,140 the week before.

That’s according to a U.S. Department of Labor news release issued Thursday.

The increase of nearly 3,000 unemployment-insurance applications in New York topped all U.S. states. Wisconsin posted the second biggest increase.

cnybj.com/News/Articles/TabId/102/ArticleId/40558/language/en-US/new-york-posts-nations-largest-increase-in-jobless-claims-in-latest-week.aspx#.VJmesdAME


#7

After this post, I did a search. The following link is how they immediately raised the GDP by about 3% a couple of years ago.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/apr/23/recalculating-gross-national-product-hollywood


#8

Agreed about MSNBC, to the bystander who may not know it, MSNBC hires Al Sharpton who is in the news I’d say for the wrong reasons and probably actually bad reasons.


#9

The problem with U-6 as a measure of unemployment is its irrelevance. After all, discouraged workers are nothing but people who are too lazy to look for a job. If someone is too lazy to look for a job, why should we care whether or not they are unemployed?


#10

I believe your characterization of discouraged people being too lazy would be seen as wrong by most people on both sides of the political aisle.


#11

His administration isn’t that bad. There is a segment of the media that is quite profitable when they work a small portion of the population into a frenzy that a certain politician is horrible and then keep those people buying their products. They then go onto forum boards and talk about how horrible that politician is and repeat the stuff they heard from that segment of the media. You will not get a reasoned perception of how a typical American feels about politics from a message board since all message boards are geared towards a single view and those that participate that hold views counter to that are attacked. At least, here, they are attacked politely using little code words, while I’m sure they smirk with the giggles of pre-teen girls.

As far as the US economy goes, it certainly is doing better, but from my view, the typical citizen is still worried; they have economically lost ground in the last 10 years, significantly so. They also don’t feel like they have the job security they did in the first half of the 00s and most of the 90s. For the rich, though, things are pretty awesome. The stock market is high; taxes fairly low. It’s a new gilded age.


#12

Hmm…one hears very similar arguments about immigration in the UK ie all the Poles, Romanians and other Eastern Europeans exercising their right to freedom of movement under EU law (which the UK signed up to) are “stealing” jobs and leading to unemployment for the average Joe. I am as sceptical about this kind of argument in a US context as much as I am in a UK one, in fact more so given that the United States is built on immigration. As many of the immigrants coming to the UK are Catholics from Poland who are becoming the very life of our community here, with frequent Polish masses held in my diocese, I have a right to be sceptical, since the ones I know are moderate to highly skilled workers that any developed economy should welcome with open arms.

Many of these people are simply “grafters”, very hard working and industrious. There seems to be a lot of jealousy directed their way, not to mention racism. The UKIP leader, for instance, referred to Chinese the other day as “chinkies”, so residual and perhaps unintentional racism is definitely a factor at least in the UK context. The claim that most of them come here and simply live off our benefits system is surely suspect if my experience on the ground is anything to go by.

I am aware that some employers might think they can get away with cheap labour from new immigrants but are you honestly trying to tell me that this encouraging (because if accurate it is encouraging) economic growth in the USA is being spurred simply by immigrants getting jobs at the expense of those already domiciled? :shrug:

What do you make of this study:

kstp.com/article/stories/s3657755.shtml

Immigrants Make Big Contributions to Minnesota Economy, Study says

Immigration is always a divisive debate and a new, non-partisan study shows its benefits for Minnesota.

It shows new numbers about how immigrants are contributing to the state’s economy.
Sharing African recipes, with up to 600 customers a day in the West Bank and Cedar Riverside communities; It’s what makes this Minneapolis small business owner Abdirahman Kahin proud.

“Our positive impact into the economy, and to the labor, and into a lot of aspects of life,” Kahin said. He’s glad to see those are some of the results from a new study out on Immigrant Contributions to Minnesota’s Economy.

Sarah Radosevich is a Policy Research Analyst with the Minnesota Chamber of Commerce. Radosevich is part of the Minnesota Business Immigration Coalition, which helped author the report. **“We found that immigrant purchasing power more like $7.7 billion a year,” Radosevich said. The study also found they contributed more than $22 billion to the state’s GDP. And more than $1 billion in state and local taxes. Radosevich said it’s good for the state’s economy.

KSTP asked Radosevich what she would say to people who argue people in immigrant communities take jobs away from non-immigrants. Radosevich said, “You know, on a case by case basis, that might be happening at the very micro level, but what the evidence shows, and this has been widely studied across the U.S., is that over time having immigrants here leads to more job opportunities for everyone.”**

Some of those jobs are right here in the Twin Cities. Kahin, a Minnesota resident and Somali American, is opening a second restaurant at 5 West 7th Place in St. Paul, at the end of January. “I believe there is an opportunity there.”

If accurate, it would seem to indicate that these immigrants in Minnesota might be as industrious as the much and unfairly maligned Poles over here in my diocese, no?


#13

What legitimate reason can an unemployed person have for not looking for a job? If you want a job and refuse to look for one, how can that not be laziness?


#14

Many on the right suffer from Obama-derangement syndrome, just as many on the left suffered from Bush-derangement syndrome.

Facts don’t matter to any of us when we hit this stage, all that matters are the color of our glasses and the state of our feelings.


#15

You are saying “lazy” but the truth is, maybe they couldn’t find a job.


#16

You changed what you said in this post to “refuse to look for one”.


#17

Agree!


#18

I believe that you make a valid point. However in my case, it is not being a part of the right or the left. I admit that I have trouble viewing anything from Obama as being well meaning because of his many policies against the Catholic Church, primarily his high regard for promoting and protecting the right to kill the most innocent. I also have a problem with how he argued the infants born alive act.

I find myself questioning all of his motives.


#19

States with above average job growth, a picture speaks louder than words:

kiplinger.com/article/business/T012-C000-S005-states-adding-jobs.html

The West, Energy States are the darkest blue. Some in the South. I think State Governments have more to do with the growth.

Top Cities for Job Growth. kiplinger.com/article/business/T012-C000-S005-states-adding-jobs.html

1. Austin, Texas
2. Houston, Texas
3. San Antonio, Texas
4. Dallas, Texas
5. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
6. New Orleans, Louisiana

7. Nashville, Tennessee
8. Salt Lake City, Utah
9. Denver area, Colorado
10. Indianapolis, Indiana.

Just those top 6 cities point largely towards energy and if not that, then the State creating the jobs, NOT the Federal Government.


#20

If they are looking for a job they are in the normal measure of unemployment. U-6 includes those who want a job but are too lazy to look for one. Once again why should we care about those too lazy to look for work.


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