Vote Remain storms to shock three-point lead in last-minute surge: Poll reveals dramatic turnaround as EU vote looms


#1

**Vote Remain storms to shock three-point lead in last-minute surge: Poll reveals dramatic turnaround as EU vote looms **

Read more: dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3648497/Vote-Remain-storms-shock-three-point-lead-minute-surge-Poll-reveals-dramatic-turnaround-EU-vote-looms.html#ixzz4ByB9Dj00

**The Remain camp has surged into a three-point lead in the EU referendum campaign in the aftermath of the death of Jo Cox.

A Mail on Sunday poll by Survation shows David Cameron’s Remain campaign on 45 per cent support, with Boris Johnson’s Leave on 42.

It reflects a dramatic six-point turnaround since a similar Survation poll on Thursday, hours before the Labour MP was killed. The new telephone poll was conducted on Friday and Saturday as the nation mourned Mrs Cox.

In addition to her prominent campaign for Syrian refugees, Mrs Cox was a leading Remain supporter.

The six-point switch confirms claims by some commentators that voters could take a more ‘risk-averse’ approach to leaving the EU so soon after Mrs Cox’s shocking death.

Survation’s Thursday poll showed Leave on 45 and Remain on 42, the exact reverse of today’s figures. The number of undecided – 13 per cent – has stayed the same. If undecided voters are excluded, the poll produces a 52-48 per cent majority in favour of staying in the EU.**

And the gap could get bigger: 46 per cent say Remain are likely to benefit from any additional late surge, with 33 per cent forecasting a late swing to Leave.

A win for Remain is forecast by 40 per cent, with 26 per cent predicting victory for Leave. **Mr Cameron tops the table for best campaign with 17 per cent, ahead of Boris Johnson on 15, Nigel Farage ten, Michael Gove nine and George Osborne two.

However, voters disapproved of Mr Farage’s controversial ‘Breaking Point’ migrant queue poster – 43 per cent said it was inflammatory** while 28 per cent said it was fair.

Nearly a third (31 per cent) said Mr Cameron’s Remain side had conducted the most responsible campaign, with 27 per cent favouring Leave, while an overwhelming seven out of ten said MPs must tone down their verbal attacks on each other.


#2

Sometimes, you just have to let time play upon the issue (in other words, don’t get excited until the exit polls). :slight_smile:


#3

Another new poll, same outcome as the one above:

Death of Jo Cox MP ‘sparks surge to Remain’ in EU poll

Read more: metro.co.uk/2016/06/18/leave-and-remain-camps-neck-and-neck-in-latest-poll-5953294/#ixzz4ByGii6aE

[INDENT]There has been a shift in public opinion following the death of MP Jo Cox, a new poll indicates.

[/INDENT]

**Jo Cox’s death sparks EU referendum poll surge for Remain as tragedy changes opinion **

mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/jo-coxs-death-sparks-eu-8226820

[INDENT]**ComRes analysts were amazed when the results coming in after 2pm began to show a marked change of heart from Brexit to Remain

Voters became more inclined to want to stay in the EU after MP Jo Cox was shot.

The astonishing finding comes in a ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror.

And it shows the murder of the 41 year old mum of two could have a direct effect on Thursday’s result.

Our pollsters were asking questions on the EU referendum at the exact time news broke of the attack on the Batley and Spen Labour MP at 2pm on Thursday.

ComRes analysts were amazed when the results coming in after 2pm began to show a marked change of heart.
**

[/INDENT]

It should be noted that ‘Remain’ regained a 7-point lead in a poll taken just before Jo Cox’s murder, so the ‘surge’ may not be entirely in response to this tragedy.

Whenever the ‘economy’ comes back into the fore as the main issue, Remain leads.

Whenever ‘immigration’ comes back into the fore as the main issue, Leave leads.

It may be that the latter ‘focus’ has been somewhat affected by this tragedy, which could (but not necessarily will) influence the final, overall vote next Thursday.


#4

Completely agree, I learned that lesson from the Scottish referendum. :slight_smile:

I am just putting these polls up - as they come - to show how analysts are assessing the fluctuations in sample studies of public opinion.


#5

The problem about referenda seems to be that they’re not really about what they’re apparently about and are framed in such a way that not many people seem to notice. :smiley:


#6

Opinion polls don’t mean anything, remember how “well” they did in the last election?

Best thing is to look at the bookies as they are usually spot on.

They have had the UK to remain at odds on for many months which is unfortunate.


#7

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