West Africa Ebola toll rises to more than 2,400 dead


#1

(Reuters) - The death toll from West Africa’s Ebola outbreak has risen to more than 2,400 from at least 4,784 cases, but that is highly likely to be an underestimate, the World Health Organisation’s director general Margaret Chan said on Friday.

Chan said the number of cases of the deadly viral disease is rising faster than authorities’ ability to manage them, and she called for international support in sending healthcare workers, medical supplies and aid to the worst-affected countries of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.

uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/12/uk-health-ebola-toll-idUKKBN0H70RW20140912


#2

It seems likely that ebola infected soldiers stationed in military hubs will only help the virus spread.

latimes.com/world/africa/la-fg-ebola-africa-us-britain-20140908-story.html


#3

It will definitely be rising. They will be lucky if it doesn’t go over ten
thousand.


#4

Your link does not support your claim. The news article says that the US and UK military will build health care facilities, not that the militaries will be delivering patient care.


#5

I thought I would share some of the articles I have collected about this current Ebola outbreak. IF it can save a single life of a brother or sister in Christ then Praise God.

This is the Ebola fact/data sheet provided by the Canadian government and it has some interesting facts.
phac-aspc.gc.ca/lab-bio/res/psds-ftss/ebola-eng.php

Early signs of infection are non-specific and flu-like, and may include sudden onset of fever, asthenia, diarrhea, headache, myalgia, arthralgia, vomiting, and abdominal pains Footnote 13. Less common early symptoms include conjunctival injection, sore throat, rashes, and bleeding. Shock, cerebral oedema, coagulation disorders, and secondary bacterial infection may co-occur later in infection Footnote 8. Haemorrhagic symptoms may begin 4 - 5 days after onset, including hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, pharyngitis, bleeding gums, oral/lip ulceration, hematemesis, melena, hematuria, epistaxis, and vaginal bleeding.

So Ebola first seems like the flu, and while a person shows symptoms they are contagious. Many people appear to get the disease from others who are in this phase of what seems to be basically a flu.

The largest recorded ebolavirus outbreak to date began in March 2014, with initial cases reported in Guinea and then additional cases identified in the surrounding regions (Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria). A new strain of the ZEBOV species was identified as the causative agent of the outbreak Footnote 16 Footnote 21 Footnote 22.

HOST RANGE: Humans, various monkey species, chimpanzees, gorillas, baboons, and duikers are natural animal hosts for ebolavirus Footnote 1 Footnote 2 Footnote 5 Footnote 22 Footnote 23 Footnote 24 Footnote 25 Footnote 26 Footnote 27 Footnote 28 Footnote 29 Footnote 30 Footnote 31. Serological evidence of immunity markers to ebolavirus in serum collected from domesticated dogs suggests asymptomatic infection is plausible, likely following exposure to infected humans or animal carrion Footnote 32 Footnote 33. The Ebolavirus genome was discovered in two species of rodents and one species of shrew living in forest border areas, raising the possibility that these animals may be intermediary hosts Footnote 34. Experimental studies of the virus have been done using mouse, pig, guinea pig, and hamster models, suggesting wild-type ebolavirus has limited pathogenicity in these models Footnote 35 Footnote 36.

Bats are considered to be a plausible reservoir for the virus. Serological evidence of infection with ebolavirus (antibody detection to EBOV, ZEBOV, and/or REBOV) has been reported in fruit bats collected from woodland and forested areas near Ghana and Gabon, with reduced frequency of isolation from bats collected in mainland China and Bangladesh

Ebola can live in the above listed animals, to include dogs. Whether it can jump to humans is affirmed if humans eat the host in the case of the fruit bats, but nothing proven otherwise. Still, ingesting the virus does seem to be another vector for getting Ebola and if a dog carrying the disease got into food, it would seem plausible that the disease could be picked up from the contaminated food.

INFECTIOUS DOSE: ***Viral hemorrhagic fevers have an infectious dose of 1 - 10 organisms by aerosol ***in non-human primates Footnote 41.

MODE OF TRANSMISSION: In an outbreak, it is hypothesized that the first ***patient becomes infected as a result of contact with an infected animal ***. Person-to-person transmission occurs via close personal contact with an infected individual or their body fluids during the late stages of infection or after death . Nosocomial infections can occur through contact with infected body fluids for example due to the reuse of unsterilized syringes, needles, or other medical equipment contaminated with these fluids . Humans may be infected by handling sick or dead non-human primates and are also at risk when handling the bodies of deceased humans in preparation for funerals.

In laboratory settings, ***non-human primates exposed to aerosolized ebolavirus ***from pigs have become infected, however, airborne transmission has not been demonstrated between non-human primates. Viral shedding has been observed in nasopharyngeal secretions and rectal swabs of pigs following experimental inoculation.

INCUBATION PERIOD: Two to 21 days.

COMMUNICABILITY: Communicable as long as blood, body fluids or organs, contain the virus. Ebolavirus has been ***isolated from semen 61 to 82 days after the onset of illness, and transmission through semen has occurred 7 weeks ***after clinical recovery.

OK, so Ebola can be spread airborne, but only proven so far to spread from pigs to monkeys that way. No proof it can spread between humans or apes.

Ebola is also transmitted sexually up to 7 weeks after it is cleared from the rest of the body.


#6

nytimes.com/2014/09/13/world/africa/us-scientists-see-long-fight-against-ebola.html?ref=world&_r=3

The deadly Ebola outbreak sweeping across three countries in West Africa is likely to last 12 to 18 months more, much longer than anticipated, and could infect hundreds of thousands of people before it is brought under control, say scientists mapping its spread for the federal government.

“We hope we’re wrong,” said Bryan Lewis, an epidemiologist at the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute at Virginia Tech.

Both the time the model says it will take to control the epidemic and the number of cases it forecasts far exceed estimates by the World Health Organization, which said last month that it hoped to control the outbreak within nine months and predicted 20,000 total cases by that time. The organization is sticking by its estimates, a W.H.O. spokesman said Friday.

Researchers say it could take 12 to 18 months to bring the epidemic under control.

But researchers at various universities say that at the virus’s present rate of growth, there could easily be close to 20,000 cases in one month, not in nine. Some of the United States’ leading epidemiologists, with long experience in tracking diseases such as influenza, have been creating computer models of the Ebola epidemic at the request of the National Institutes of Health and the Defense Department.

This is a serious pandemic and threatens the population of the entire globe.

The Black Plague, by comparison, only had a mortality rate of around 30% to 50% in some areas. This Ebola is doing 55% mortality with 90% in some areas.


#7

independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/ebola-virus-spread-by-taxi-passengers-says-who-9719478.html

Ebola virus spread by taxi passengers, says World Health Organisation
The Ebola virus is spreading exponentially in Liberia, the World Health Organisation warned today.
The organisation said that motorbike-taxis and regular taxis are “a hot source of potential virus transmission” because they are not disinfected in Liberia, where conventional Ebola control measures “are not having an adequate impact”.

The United Nations agency said aid partners needed to scale up efforts against Ebola by three- to fourfold in Liberia and elsewhere in West African countries battling the epidemic.

Ebola can spread indirectly via materials used on those sickened with it. Used bandages, medical clothes etc were known to be virus reservoirs, but now we can add the materials in a taxi cab, such as the interior cabin cloth seat coverings, etc.


#8

news.yahoo.com/area-ebola-risk-animals-bigger-thought-003618103.html

While the actual risk of animal-to-human or “zoonotic” transmission is low – with just 30 confirmed cases in history – the wide geographic spread boosts the potential for future human outbreaks, which always start with the virus crossing the species barrier, they said.

The risk area covers countries as far north on the continent as Nigeria and as far south as Mozambique, the team of disease specialists wrote in the journal eLife.

People can in very rare cases contract the virus from handling or eating infected animals like bats, chimpanzees or gorillas, and then infect other people.

Human-to-human transmission of the haemorrhagic fever-causing virus with a death rate of up to 90 percent is not easy either – it requires direct contact with the body fluids of an infected person or corpse.

Countries that have never had a direct animal-to-human infection, but are at risk, are Angola, Burundi, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Tanzania and Togo, the team reported.

Cases of zoonotic transmission had in the past been reported in the Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Guinea, Ivory Coast, South Sudan and Uganda.

The expanded list showed the risk area was “more widespread than previously predicted or appreciated,” said the team, which compiled a series of maps for disease control experts.

When things look this bad, one often wonders if the press is getting the full story, since sometimes panic can be more fatal than the risk itself.

Complicating all of this is the one Iron Rule of Panic; He who panics first panics best.


#9

telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ebola/11086598/Millions-more-at-risk-in-Ebola-outbreak-British-study-finds.html

a map of the affected region:
i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03034/1109Ebola_3034263a.jpg


#10

ajc.com/news/news/study-simulates-likelihood-ebola-spread/nhGRg/

SAN FRANCISCO —
As the Ebola epidemic in West Africa continues to worsen at an alarming rate, health officials have issued increasingly dire warnings about the possibility of a global outbreak.

“Six months into the worst Ebola epidemic in history, the world is losing the battle to contain it,” Doctors Without Borders International President Joanne Liu said to PBS.

“Every day this outbreak goes on, it increases the risk for another export to another country,” CDC Director Tom Frieden said to CNN:

Now, a new analysis published this week in PLOS Currents: Outbreaks has shed some light on the possibility of Ebola traveling outside of West Africa…

Using WHO data, researchers simulated potential situations where Ebola could spread to other countries by studying air traffic patterns and mobility between infected and non-infected countries. They ran simulations on two dates, Sept. 1 and Sept. 22. Their predictions show a sharp increase in the probability of another country getting infected. At the beginning of the month, the U.S. had only a five percent chance of importing an outbreak. By the 22nd, the probability jumps up to 18 percent. (Video via Voice of America)

“What is happening in West Africa is going to get here. We can’t escape that at this point. … Sooner or later, they will arrive,” Alessandro Vespignani, the study’s author, told NPR.

Now, there are a couple of important caveats to the researchers’ findings. For one thing, an Ebola case reaching a developed country with an efficient healthcare system probably won’t cause the mass epidemic levels we’ve seen in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. What’s more, the numbers come with a pretty high probability range, so while the U.S. could have a 18 percent infection risk at the end of the month, that number could also be as low as 1 percent. Contrast that with the U.K., which has an infection risk of 25-28 percent by the end of the month. (Video via Euronews)

This disease will eventually reach the USA and Europe now, and I hope and pray that the medical professionalism of staff at our second and third tier hospitals and clinics are up to task, but the spread of MRSA does not fill me with confidence.


#11

Let’s pray together that cure for this deadly virus will be soon discovered.


#12

Amen.


#13

I heard the US military will build a couple of mobile hospitals then pull out.


#14

We focus on the threats to the public that wield weapons and respond too softly to biological threats, if at all.

Politics is weird.

Map to spread of Ebola with timeline. The exponential growth rate is clearly seen as you go back through the timeline of cases to the beginning.

healthmap.org/ebola/


#15

Yes, this is true. This article discusses that. It is part of a major offensive that President Obama is going to initiate to try and bring the epidemic under control:

online.wsj.com/articles/obama-plans-major-ebola-offensive-1410738096


#16

So are we going alone on this also or are there other countries who will help us fight ebola?


#17

And the statistics are another story.

google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCAQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.sciencemag.org%2Fafrica%2F2014%2F09%2Fhow-deadly-ebola-statistical-challenges-may-be-inflating-survival-rate&ei=6YUWVM2xO8LU8AHumIHgBA&usg=AFQjCNGycnf20b7GMc_seVojnBnVabKRhg

google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CCAQqQIwAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.azcentral.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Flocal%2Ftempe%2F2014%2F09%2F12%2Febola-spreading-rapidly-through-west-africa-asu-researchers-find%2F15504973%2F&ei=iIcWVPiqDYWZyAT5-IC4Dg&usg=AFQjCNECEuKnBi2BEt2IfTW3XgRff-nZRg

google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CCQQqQIwAg&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymail.co.uk%2Fhealth%2Farticle-2752911%2FEbola-hit-15-countries-Africa-Study-disease-spread-past-finds-70million-people-risk-infection.html&ei=iIcWVPiqDYWZyAT5-IC4Dg&usg=AFQjCNF05jOmVyvbRX1ekDCwAmySIdc0gg

google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0CCIQqQIwAQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2014%2F09%2F13%2Fworld%2Fafrica%2Fus-scientists-see-long-fight-against-ebola.html&ei=iIcWVPiqDYWZyAT5-IC4Dg&usg=AFQjCNGYWfc8rtpi-n1EghSMam4mIGApXA

The deadly Ebola outbreak sweeping across three countries in West Africa is likely to last 12 to 18 months more, much longer than anticipated, and could infect hundreds of thousands of people before it is brought under control, say scientists mapping its spread for the federal government.

“We hope we’re wrong,” NY-Times

“There has been no indication of any downturn in the epidemic in the three countries that have widespread and intense transmission,” it said, referring to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. NY Times

“The final death toll may be far higher than any of those estimates unless an effective vaccine or therapy becomes available on a large scale or many more hospital beds are supplied,” NY Times

The researchers note that their analysis is limited by the complex geographical patterns of the region, the ability of the World Health Organization to accurately represent the number of cases and downward bias. ASU

Previous studies have shown that the first patient in an Ebola outbreak is [very probably] infected through contact with an infected animal. The so-called “index case” in the current Congo outbreak was, according to the WHO, a pregnant woman from Ikanamongo Village who butchered a bush animal that had been killed and given to her by her husband. Daily Mail

The Ebola outbreak could hit 15 countries across Africa - putting the lives of 22 million people at risk, a groundbreaking study has found.
In a world first, Oxford scientists have created a new map of places most at risk of an Ebola outbreak. They warn regions likely to be home to animals harbouring the virus are more widespread than previously feared, particularly in West Africa.
The virus, which can have a human mortality rate of up to 90 per cent, is thought to be carried by bats or other wild animals and to cross into humans through contact with blood, meat or other infected fluids. Daily Mail

Looks shaky.


#18

I really have no idea.


#19

Other countries are trying to help, but the world is in chaos and funds are tight everywhere.

The reality is that our best chance to stop Ebola from turning into a global pandemic is to stop it while in its smallest geographical area.

But in such stage it is also less alarming for the leadership who commit the resources.

Ebola seems less scary than ISIS, though Ebola is far deadlier in potential and completely indiscriminate.

Shamefully more will have to die before sufficient effort will be committed and by then it will likely be too late.


#20

Other countries are helping. Here is a bit from the most recent press release of the European Union:

The EU has increased its response on several occasions since the outbreak of the epidemic and has so far pledged almost €150 million to help the affected countries. This includes ensuring treatment for infected patients and measures to contain the epidemic, as well as strengthening health care systems and improving food security, water and sanitation. EU mobile laboratories are deployed in the region to help with the diagnostics and confirmation of cases and train laboratory technicians. Furthermore, Liberia and Sierra Leone will receive financial assistance through budget support to help them deliver health care services and bolster macro-economic stability in response to wider economic challenges arising from the crisis.
europa.eu/rapid/press-release_STATEMENT-14-278_en.htm


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