When polls shape opinion rather than measure it

An interesting perspective on polling.

Nice article and it’s the position I’ve taken with reported polls - sometimes interesting but all to often not providing a complete picture and not terribly accurate.

It’s only as accurate as the effort one puts to make it random and make the sample size large enough.

I’ve sworn off polls ever since (virtually) every poll predicted HRC to win the 2016 election.

I’m still convinced the pollsters lied to us.

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It’s not a surprise the media does it. Sometimes it’s ignorance. But when you try to tell them they’re wrong, they ignore you. So it makes you wonder.

And it’s not just for politics. One of the worst statistics is the claim Christians divorce at the same rate as those without religion. Well, what is a Christian? If you count only those that attend services regularly, then the divorce rate is around 30% compared to 50% for those who aren’t religious. If you look at self-identified Christians who don’t attend regularly or even at all, it’s about 50%. That’s quite a gap. Guess which one the media runs with? Not only that, how many of the 30% who were divorced religious at the time? Was it because they had to escape abuse? Were they abandoned by another spouse? Important details here.

The point here is how you ask the questions and categorize can influence outcomes.

The pollsters, HRC, media and the DNC.

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It was reported on Fox that Hillary’s lead was 4% plus or minus 3.5%. Her final tally was 2% over Donald, within the margin of error. Trump’s odds were 30% of winning the electoral college, better than the odds the Cubs had of winning the WS after being down 3 games to 1. Both events came true.

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But did you think she would actually lose?
I don’t know a single RL person who thought she would lose.
Even the conservative commentators were bracing themselves for her to win.
Watch some of the election night coverage. Her loss was a complete shock to virtually everybody.

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Its very obvious that the media was pushing the Clinton win so hard that even the weary Republicans were getting wide eyed! And then … celebrate!

Nate Silver gave some warnings. As did James Carville and Michael Moore, but there was a lot of gloating on both sides. Lot of fear after the Comey letter.

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Here we go! This is the second mention of Michael Moore on CAF. Watch for those that rush to build his image.

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