The Church doesn’t really say whether Judas is in heaven or hell so until that question is fully answered I don’t think yours can be. I think it is likely Mathias though even if Judas did not go to hell, since Judas died before the resurrection and the Church age, which was when the 12 really began their ministry to go out in to the world and preach the gospel, baptizing in +. My 2 cents.
Personally I’ve never liked the arguement about Mathias being chosen for Apostlic succession of the Catholic Church.
The Bishops are not Apostles but successors to the Apostles. Paul went out and set up leaders in all the Churches. Bishops were ordained through the laying on of hands. Paul further gives instructions for ordaining new leaders through the laying on of hands. Most certainly the rest of the Apostles did as well in there diocese.
The case for succession of the papacy is very easy to make. Peter was given keys. Now I was given keys to my house. These keys give access, control, and authority to me over that house. When I sell the house I pass them on to the next owner.
That’s not all. If you look back in Is 22:22-23 there is a clear parrallel to Matt 16:18 where Eliakim is given “the keys to the house of david” from Shebna who is a corrupt “steward” or spokesman for the king. It says these keys give Eliakim authority over the house of david. The opening and shutting in that chapter is directly parrellel to Matt 16:18 binding and loosing and equivalent to it in rabinical language. No faithful Jew would have missed the parrellel Jesus was drawing. Now Shebna was a steward in a long line of stewards. The keys to the house of david had been passed on to him, as an officer for the king in the davidic kingdom. Jesus is a king in the line of david with offices in his court.
Hope that helps.