Why Wisconsin’s primary could pack a punch


#1

The Wisconsin primary occurs deep in the presidential nominating calendar, nearly two months after the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary. But Tuesday’s primary may matter and function more like those initial nominating contests than the more recent primaries.

Through March, presidential campaigns were focused on clusters of contests — such as the many Super Tuesdays — when overall delegate count mattered more than anything else. But winning Wisconsin’s primary is not so much about the delegate count as the momentum it could induce (or halt) in the Republican and Democratic races for president.

“Because it is the only contest that day, the Wisconsin primary could serve as a campaign reset,” said Republican strategist Rick Wiley, who ran Governor Scott Walker’s presidential campaign. “Republicans will be campaigning there for two weeks straight, and the result could serve as a major momentum boost."

bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/03/31/why-wisconsin-primary-could-pack-punch/W4WO1ftmkbd6hF2cssEamI/story.html


#2

I think Cruz and Sanders will win.


#3

Anybody but Trump winning Wisconsin almost ensures an open GOP convention in which none of the current candidates are likely to get the nomination. Neither Cruz, nor Kasich have a path to 1237 delegates, and I doubt either would get serious consideration at the convention.

Sanders winning Wisconsin makes it more likely that neither Clinton or Sanders get the nomination. The Dems aren’t going to nominate Sanders, and Clinton is showing signs of being a weak candidate incapable of generating any enthusiasm. If Sanders wins, start looking for people to start talking about Biden as the nominee, with Elizabeth Warren a possible dark horse.


#4

American politics has gone crazy. If what you say transpires, then it is just mental. Very entertaining though as well, from a purely melodramatic perspective :thumbsup:


#5

Cruz by a fairly wide margin; Clinton by a very narrow margin because of the metro Milwaukee vote, though it could very well be Sanders.


#6

Cruz will win Wisconsin. Hillary will arrive at the Democratic convention with the required number of delegates, thanks to New York and California, but she won’t have as wide a margin as she thought going in. Sanders will tell his supporters to vote for Hillary. Hillary will mop the floor with either Trump or Cruz.


#7

I still believe that is by far the most likely outcome as well :thumbsup:


#8

I don’t know, I still doubt that either Trump or Cruz will end up with the Republican nomination.


#9

Agree as well, I meant with reference to the Dems. I think Clinton is still a foregone conclusion. As for the GOP, a brokered convention still seems most likely.


#10

If Trump is denied the nomination at the Republican convention my biggest hope is that this guy makes good on his plans to run for president. ora.tv/offthegrid/article/2016/3/3/heres-what-a-jesse-ventura-presidency-would-look-like If that happens it could well be a four way race in November and Hillary no longer becomes a lock.


#11

Wasn’t Ventura a Reform Party member back in the day? He’s far more right than he is left. If he runs it’ll just split the Republican vote further and a Democrat winning is a certainty.


#12

He has some very good ideas but some very bad ones as well, i,e, supports abortion and same sex marriage. I think he’d definitely take some Dem votes as well as more libertarian leaning Republicans. Heck if it were Clinton, him, and a GOP machine pick other than Trump, I’d vote for Jesse as a protest vote.


#13

Where is Hillary generating any enthusiasm? Democrat primary turnout is down by 25-30%. That’s not the mark of a party that’s enthusiastic about a candidate. Both Trump and Cruz have substantial weaknesses, but Republican turnout is way up. This is why I’m skeptical that Hillary will get the nomination. The grandees of the Democrat party can read the lack of enthusiasm as well as anybody.


#14

I think Cruz will dominate, in part based on this:

cnsnews.com/news/article/trump-grilled-dean-wisconsin-conservative-talk-radio

[quote=CNSNews]Trump grilled by dean of Wisconsin conservative talk radio

NEW YORK (AP) — Donald Trump tangled with the dean of a conservative Wisconsin talk radio on Monday, enduring a harsh grilling as he prepared to campaign in the state ahead of its upcoming primary.

Milwaukee-based radio show host Charlie Sykes, an influential voice for local Republicans, pressed Trump on a range of issues, including whether he should apologize to Ted Cruz’s wife, Heidi, whom he mocked on Twitter last week. Trump indicated that he was simply retweeting a message from a supporter who had posted an unflattering photo of Heidi Cruz next to a glamorous shot of Trump’s model wife, Melania.

“Is your standard that if a supporter does something despicable, that it’s OK for you, a candidate for president of the United States, to behave that same way?” Sykes asked. “I mean, I expect that from a 12 year-old bully on the playground, not somebody who wants the office held by Abraham Lincoln.”

Sykes said that he hoped Trump realized that “here in Wisconsin we value things like civility, decency and actual conservative principles” and asked him to declare that wives would be off limit in the discourse ahead of the April 5 primary. Trump said he would be in favor of that but said that he would not apologize until Cruz first said he was sorry for the ad his supporters ran in Utah featuring a photo of a partially clad Melania Trump that had originally appeared in GQ magazine.

Cruz has said he knew nothing about the ad, which was published by a Super PAC that backed him. That did not satisfy Trump.

“I didn’t start, he started it. If he didn’t start it, it never would have happened,” said Trump Monday morning. He added that while he does “believe in apologizing” he wouldn’t do so until Cruz did first.

“My views are not playground views,” Trump said.

The Wisconsin primary is shaping up to be a key moment in the Republican nomination, as a solid Cruz win would narrow Trump’s path to the nomination and increase the likelihood of a contested convention this summer. Cruz — who has recently picked up a wave of Republican establishment support — has been criss-crossing the state and has begun airing $500,000 in ads.

That Trump appeared with Sykes at all was somewhat surprising.

snip
[/quote]

I didn’t think it was surprising at all that Trump would give Sykes an interview since Trump mentioned Sykes wife as a possible Supreme Court nominee:

slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/02/13/donald_trump_just_proposed_diane_sykes_and_bill_pryor_for_the_supreme_court.html

Trump declined to apologize for tweeting this:

[quote=Donald Trump Tweet]Lyin’ Ted Cruz just used a picture of Melania from a G.Q. shoot in his ad. Be careful, Lyin’ Ted, or I will spill the beans on your wife!
[/quote]


#15

Im from wisconsin and hope cruz


#16

Who then? Kasich or Rubio? I hope not someone who didn’t even run in the primaries.


#17

I agree that it appears Cruz has the edge. Trump had quite a bad week. On the Democratic side, it seems to be a toss-up.


#18

Turnout would be down another 25% if it wasn’t for the Bern. The only passion is for a candidate with a hard left policy agenda, that won’t play in the general election.

I think the Dems will have a more interesting convention than the GOP


#19

I’m not amused, I am afraid for the country.


#20

I was being tongue-in-cheek Mary. I am aware of the gravity of the situation…

That said it is still a fascinating spectacle to watch.


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