Zogby Analytics: Clinton 45%-Trump 45%


#1

**Zogby Analytics: Clinton 45%-Trump 45% **

January 25 2016 Written by Zogby

This headline is actually correct to the tenth of a percent. In the new Zogby Analytics Poll of 843 likely voters nationwide, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are tied 45.0% to 45.0%. Ten percent are undecided. The poll, conducted online January 19-20, has a margin of sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points.

The new poll shows a 16 point gender gap with Mr. Trump leading among men 50%-42% and Mrs. Clinton ahead among women 48%-40-%. Mrs. Clinton has wide support among 18-29 year olds (57%-25%) and holds a seven point lead among 30-49 year olds (49%-42%), but Mr. Trump is ahead among 50-64 year olds (50%-44%) and has a two to one edge among voters over 65 (61%-30%).

Mr. Trump is ahead among Catholics - a group that Democrats have won every election since 1992. He also draws an impressive 66% support among evangelicals (to Mrs. Clinton’s 25%). He also leads among NASCAR Fans (48%-42%), Investor Class voters (49%-44%), and Weekly Wal-Mart Shoppers (50%-42%) - a group President Obama won twice. He even is drawing 37% of union households (to Mrs. Clinton’s 56%)…

Trump is also getting 33% of Hispanics.


#2

NASCAR fans are an analytical point they use!?


#3

They may be trying to imply “redneck” support.

I don’t mean that in a bad way but I think it may be true.


#4

And so Hillary still gets, do I get this correct, 42% of the Nascar vote? Really, to win an election over all, that may not be a bad number.


#5

Have you seen how many people pack into NASCAR venues every week!? :eek:

tee


#6

Honestly, I’ve never been impressed by their numbers. I mean collectively far more people watch baseball, football, etc… over the course of a season both in person and including TV numbers. But that’s neither here nor there. I suspect Mike is correct in that they use it as a data point due to the fairly homogeneous nature of NASCAR fans.

Not sure if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. I mean as the article stated that among the similar percentage group for Clinton of Walmart Shoppers, Obama actually won that group both in '08 and '12. I wonder if the drop Clinton has seen compared to Obama extends to NASCAR fans as well. I know anecdotally that among some of my friends who are among other things NASCAR fans only one was a McCain voter in '08, the rest were Obama supporters. But that they’re not nearly as excited about Hillary as they were about Obama 8 years ago.


#7

And exactly what does it take to be classified as a “redneck”?


#8

According to the American left, its anyone who watches NASCAR. Or owns a gun. Or prays in public. Or votes for Republicans.


#9

I think basically what St. Max said.


#10

Well I watch NASCAR, own several guns, pray in public, sometimes vote Republican, and would be considered a member of the American left if you labeled my place on the political spectrum… So that can’t be the definition.

Quick someone ask Jeff Foxworthy!


#11

These numbers are very problematic for Hillary Clinton. I suspect the undecideds would not vote for president or break for Trump.

It’s incredible that Trump has 12% among African-American voters, which means he could carry 1/5 of their vote.

And with Cruz or Rubio as VP, the Hispanic number could reach GWB/Nixon levels.

It also looks like Democrats will once again struggle with independents.

But this fight is always won or lost in the electoral college.

And what if Bloomberg runs?


#12

You should always be sceptical of election polls for hypothetical elections. Ten months ago, no polls predicted Cruz and Trump would be running one and two in Iowa.


#13

I doubt that very much. Most undecideds tend to be in the moderate middle of the political spectrum. Trump is not.


#14

Please, he is closer to the middle as a whole than McCain, Romney, or Dole ever were. He is certainly closer to the middle than Clinton and easily Sanders. Part of his distrust from conservatives is his moderate middleness.

Trump may have issues, but it will never be because is a fringe far right conservative.


#15

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